U.S., China, and Iran trade relations, rail corridors, African mineral supply, and Tantalum Capacitors

Welcome back to TAXING TARIFFS! This post, at the end of May 2026, initially zooms out from the Iran focused U.S. geopolitical situation in order to gain a more comprehensive, though by no means complete, understanding of global positioning among a subset of key global players. To accomplish that as succinctly and as best we can we trace a route from China to Iran and keep African minerals and tariffs in sight.

A balanced assessment of the current U.S. situation may go something like this; President Donald Trump of the United States recently met with President Xi Jinping of The People’s Republic of China to negotiate on many aspects of trade between the two countries and their other trading partners, as well as many other issues not the least of which is Taiwan. Okay, let’s be honest, probably most of which is Taiwan. This occurred during a ceasefire in an ongoing set of conflicts, some say “war”, in the Middle East. Iran, the U.S., and Israel are the top combatants, though there are many more nations involved. Pakistan and China have been participants, and Pakistan a host, in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict or at least extend the tenuous ceasefire.

We begin our limited, yet detailed, assessment of relations amongst China, Iran, and the U.S. and avoid including Israel or other nations. China’s goals can be assessed by considering the ambitious nature of its Belt & Road initiative that they began undertaking in 2013. These concerted efforts towards creating new trade routes and establishing connectivity on a global scale have borne much fruit. There is at least one fruition of those efforts that leads directly from China to Iran. The China-Iran railway is a land-lifeline that bypasses maritime choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Malacca Strait. It is an overland trade route and strategic supply corridor connecting Western China to Iranian ports on land (dry). Spanning approximately 10,400 (km) the route runs from Xi'an and Yiwu hubs in China through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan into Tehran, Iran. Therebye reducing minimal delivery times from up to 40 days by sea (not including disruptions) to just 15 days by rail. The difference between 40 days and 15 days is worthy of bigtime discussion when talking about supply chain efficiencies.

Since May 1 of this year, Beijing expanded its 2024 decision to grant tariff-free access to 33 least developed African nations and has now (as of May 1 st ) removed tariffs on all goods from 53 of 54 African nations. Only Eswatini was not included. Eswatini maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan. These tariff maneuverers very much constitute a part of China’s increasing emphasis on expanding trade flows and supply relations, as well as financing industrial and municipal infrastructure projects throughout Africa. Put another way, more Belt & Road.

Africa’s largest trading partner is China. Their exports to China reached nearly $125 Billion US dollars in 2025 as opposed to far less than $50 US Billion exported to the U.S. To be balanced in our assessment, the U.S. has extended through December 31, 2028, under H.R. 6500 – 119 th Congress, the duty-free treatment of the products of beneficiary Sub Saharan African countries under the Trade Act of 1974 (specifically, the Generalized System of Preferences) and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). There are 32 countries eligible for AGOA which allows eligible countries to export about 7,000 or so products without paying “standard” tariffs. Both China and the U.S. want in on Africa.

Now let’s get to the mineral side of these relations which lead to the electronics side of the story (pun intended). Both China and the U.S. are keen on securing supply chains for critical minerals form Africa such as cobalt, copper, and coltan. Cobalt and copper, though important, we’ll put aside (for now) and focus on coltan. Coltan is an ore which is primarily supplied to the world from the Democratic Republic of Congo. It contains the oxide minerals columbite and tantalite which are very significant sources of niobium and tantalum. Now let’s leave the niobium out of this too and focus even more on tantalum.

Tantalum capacitors are a significant part of the electronics manufacturing industry. Think lollipop-shaped two-stick capacitors with a muted gritty yellow coloration. Those capacitors contain anywhere from 5 to 20% tantalum. Exports from tantalum rich Congo to China were over $20 US Billion for the last two full years. Congo exports to the U.S on the other hand barely averaged $1 US Billion over the past decade.

Do you have any thoughts on the current ceasefire situation between the U.S. and Iran? What about China’s inroads to Iran and efforts in Africa? Is there a clear path forward for the U.S. with Iran and China? Let us know at taxingtariffs@microncorp.com and we’ll see you next time on TAXING TARIFFS.